India Thermal Coal Imports Down 5% amid weak power sector demand

India’s non-coking coal imports have declined by 5% year-on-year to 135 million tonnes (mnt) in the first 10 months of the fiscal year 2026(April 2025–January 2026), due to weaker demand from the power sector. The drop comes despite a marginal 0.9% rise in overall power consumption to 1.4 trillion units, as much of the demand was met by renewable energy rather than coal-fired generation.

Coal-based power generation also witnessed a drop by 4% on a y-o-y basis to 1,055 billion units during the review period. A milder summer and an extended monsoon had limited the need for thermal power. As a result, coal offtake by the power sector declined 4% to 662 mnt, even as domestic coal production remained largely stable at 830 mnt.

Imports from Indonesia, India’s largest supplier of thermal coal, fell 8% y-o-y to 80 mnt. Although lower, Indonesian coal still accounts for around 60% of India’s total coal imports and about 8% of the overall domestic availability. Nevertheless, there have been indications of possible production reductions on a year-on-year basis in the range of 40% to 70% along with reduced export volumes, which may add uncertainty to near-term supply levels. In January of 2026, thermal coal exports from Indonesia decreased by 20% compared to December 2025, as well as shipments to India by 12%.

At the same time, there was an increase in renewable energy generation, with growth rates for 10 month FY’26 being 22% year over year due to rapid additions in capacity since January. Through November 2025, there were 41 gigawatts of renewable capacity added in comparison to 9 gigawatts of coal-based capacity, and currently, approximately 40% of all installed capacity in India is renewable, resulting in a narrowing of the gap between renewables and coal as well as a structural reduction of additional coal demand.

Domestic supply growth has also been modest, though new mines under subsidiaries of Coal India Limited have begun production. It remains uncertain whether domestic output can fully bridge any potential supply gap arising from reduced Indonesian imports.

Looking ahead, weather conditions could again play a decisive role. The possibility of an El Niño formation later this year raises the risk of intense heatwaves, which could lift cooling demand and push up coal-based power generation. While renewables continue to gain share, any sharp rise in electricity demand may temporarily revive coal consumption and influence import trends in the coming months.